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Success! Your account is fully activated, you now have access to all content. # How To Build A Discounted Cash Flow Model: Growth Exit Method

. 8 min read

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis is a generic method for of valuing a project, company, or asset. A DCF forecasts cash flows and discounts them using a cost of capital to estimate their value today (present value). DCF analysis is widely used across industries ranging from law to real-estate and of course investment finance.

Note: If you've read our guides on DCF: Revenue Exit Method already, you can skip ahead to the Terminal Value section as you may find other sections of this guide repetitive.

Here is the general formula behind DCF models:

Since we can't keep projecting cash flows forever, most DCF models forecast cash flows individually for five or ten years and then estimate a continuing value or `Terminal Value`. Terminal value represents the future value of a company beyond the projection period.

Depending on the length of the projection period, it is not uncommon for the `Terminal Value` to represent 75% or more of the company's total value. Since `Terminal Value` is a critical assumption, finbox.com offers three options for estimating the value: Gordon Growth approach, EBITDA Multiple and Revenue Multiple.

This guide will walk through a DCF analysis for `Verizon` that uses a Growth Rate to estimate `Terminal Value`.

Here is an outline of the process:

Step 1: Forecast Free Cash Flows

• Create a Revenue Forecast
• Forecast EBITDA Profit Margin
• Forecast Depreciation & Amortization Expenses
• Select a Pro Forma Tax Rate
• Plan Capital Expenditures
• Forecast Net Working Capital Investment
• Calculate Free Cash Flow
• Step 2: Select a Discount Rate
• Step 3: Estimate a Terminal Value
• Step 4: Calculate The Equity Waterfall

I've created an Illustrative DCF Model for Verizon that you can use to follow along with this guide:

Illustrative DCF: Growth Exit Method

##### Forecast Free Cash Flows

The philosophy behind a DCF analysis argues the value of a company is equal to the expected future cash flows of that company. Since future free cash flows can be difficult to estimate directly, the model helps us build up to them. The model starts at the top of the Income Statement by creating a forecast for `Revenue` and then works it's down to `Net Operating Profit After Tax` (NOPAT).

Here is the formula for calculating NOPAT:

``````  Revenue
(-) Operating Expenses
(=) EBIT
(-) Taxes
(=) NOPAT
``````

The model then deducts cash outflows like `Capital Expenditures` (CapEx) and `Investment in Net Working Capital` and adds back non-cash expenses from the Income Statement like `Depreciation` and `Amortization` (D&A) to calculate the free cash flow forecast:

``````  NOPAT
(-) Capital Expenditures
(-) Investment in Net Working Capital
(+) Depreciation and Amortization
(=) Unlevered Free Cash Flow
``````

Create a Revenue Forecast

When available, finbox.com uses analyst forecasts for `Revenue` as the starting assumptions in a model. To forecast `Revenue`, analysts gather data about the company, it's customers and the state of the industry. I typically review the analyst forecast and modify the growth rates based on historical performance, news, and other insights I've gathered.

Here is the formula the model uses to create a `Revenue` forecast:

Here's the `Revenue` forecast I used in my model:

Forecast EBITDA Profit Margin

How much of the revenue Verizon generates will the company convert into profit? The model uses EBITDA as a proxy for profit at this step and deducts `Taxes`, `Depreciation` & `Amortization` expenses separately later in the model.

Here is the formula the model uses to calculate the EBITDA forecast:

This is the forecast I used in my model:

Forecast Depreciation & Amortization Expenses

Depreciation and amortization are usually part of Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) or Selling General & Administrative Expenses (SG&A). Since it's a non-cash expense the model runs the `D&A` forecast to estimate NOPAT but adds it back in the build-up to free cash flow. Including it in the NOPAT build allows the model to capture tax benefits associated with `D&A`. To avoid double counting the outlay's associated with capital expenditures, the model deducts the actual capital expenditures forecast and adds back `D&A`.

Here's the `D&A` forecast I used in my model:

Select a Pro Forma Tax Rate

"In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes."

- Benjamin Franklin

Companies are required to pay a portion of profits to the governments in the countries they operate. Historical `effective tax rates` are useful for estimating a company's marginal tax rate:

The model uses the forecasts created so far to calculate the `NOPAT`
forecast. You can see the build to `NOPAT` in the `Calculation of Free Cash Flow`
section of the model:

Plan Capital Expenditures

Spending on plant, property, and equipment allow the company to operate and grow. Here is the formula the model uses to forecast capital expenditures:

Finbox's models are powered by most recent analyst forecasts:

Forecast Net Working Capital Investment

As a company grows, it typically needs to tie up more cash in working capital to manage the day to day operations effectively. The model accounts for the impact of this investment on free cash flow by first estimating `Net Working Capital` as a % of revenue and then deducting year over year increases from free cash flow:

Here are the formulas used to forecast investment in `Net Working Capital`:

Verizon has on average required 2.6% of revenue historically for net working capital. I gradually brought net working capital toward the historical average in my forecast:

Calculate Free Cash Flow

With all required forecasts in place, calculating projected free cash flow is simple:

##### Select a Discount Rate

Next, we need a discount rate to calculate the present value of the forecasted free cash flows. Finbox's model use the company's Cost of Capital to estimate a reasonable Discount rate.

The model does the heavily lifting of calculating the `Discount Factors` using the mid-year convention. You can follow the methodology used to by reviewing the a) `Discounting Periods` and b) `Discounting Factors`.

Applying the `Discounting Factors` however is simple. For example, to calculate the present value of December 2025 projected cash flow, we can multiply Verizon cash flow that year, \$25,583, by the matching discount factor.

The model follows a similar process to compute the present value for each of the projected cash flows:

##### Estimate a Terminal Value

As mentioned earlier, this variation of the DCF uses the Gordon Growth method to estimate `Terminal Value`.

``````Terminal Value = Terminal Year FCF * (1 + g) / WACC - g

WACC = Weighted Average Cost of Capital
g = Perpetuity Growth Rate
``````

As the formula suggests, we need to estimate a `Perpetuity Growth Rate`. Here is some sound guidance on selecting a perpetuity growth rate from Macabacus:

``````The perpetuity growth rate is typically between the historical
inflation rate of 2-3% and the historical GDP growth rate of 4-5%.
If you assume a perpetuity growth rate in excess of 5%, you are
basically saying that you expect the company's growth to outpace the
economy's growth forever.
``````

So how does Finbox estimate the perpetuity growth rate? After February 2020 update, all our financial models are powered by a sophisticated machine learning model that takes into account over 50 parameters as inputs to make default predictions for exit multiples used in DCF models as well as multiples used in comparable company analysis.

If you believe the estimated growth rate is too high/low, you can input your own value in the model. For example, given Verizon is a mature company, I used a `Perpetuity Growth Rate` of 0.5% in my model with a range of +/-0.5%:

Comparing the `Terminal Value` implied by selected `Perpetuity Growth Rate` multiple to other approaches to estimating `Terminal Value` can serve as a useful sanity check. For instance, if I used the same assumptions in a DCF: EBITDA Exit model but selected a 7.5x `EBITDA Exit Multiple` to calculate `Terminal Value`, I would arrive at the same `Fair Value`. I felt comfortable with my implied exit multiple given Verizon's current trading `EV/EBITDA` multiple of 7.8x.

The `Terminal Value` calculated above is the value in the future. We can use the `Terminal Discount Factor` to compute the present value:

The model then adds the `PV of Discrete Cash Flows` and `PV of Terminal Value` together to calculate `Enterprise Value`:

##### Calculate The Equity Waterfall

An Equity Waterfall, aka Equity Value Bridge, refers to the steps used to get from the Enterprise Value of a company to its aggregate Equity Value or Market Cap.

Here is the formula for calculating an Equity Waterfall:

``````Enterprise Value
(-) Total Debt
(-) Minority Interest and Other Liabilities
(-) Preferred Equity
(-) Pension
(+) Cash and Short Term Investments
= Equity Value / Market Cap
``````

The model uses the formula above to calculate Equity Value and divides the result by the `Shares Outstanding` to compute `Fair Value per Share`.

Nice!

The assumptions I used in my model implied a range for Fair Value per Share for Verizon of \$51.47 to \$77.63. Verizon's current stock price is \$54.50, 14.8% lower the mid-point Fair Value of \$62.55. Verizon's 52-Week Low however is \$48.84. At \$38.06, Verizon would be trading at ~22% discount to my ~\$62.55 computed Fair Value. Given Verizon's long track-record and low price volatility (Beta of 0.5), it would be a fantastic value at those levels. finbox.com's Price Target and Alerts features are designed to help you monitor for pull-backs in stock price until the entry point suits your investment objectives.

##### Next Steps

The DCF model can seem complex as first but it's worth adding to your investment analysis toolbox since it provides the clearest view on value of a company.

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong"

- John Maynard Keynes

Instead of focusing on the getting each of the assumptions exactly right, take Keynes' advice on being roughly right. Select different reasonable assumptions to get a sense for key drivers of value. You can save different scenarios (e.g. Base Case, Downside Case etc.) to get comfortable the upside and downside potential of the company. As with all models on finbox.com, I recommend using a combination of models to get a sense for the risk involved and triangulate a fair value.

### Andy Pai

Founder @ finbox.io. We build tools that make life easier for investors. I started my career in investment banking. I live in Chicago. Reach out if I can be helpful!

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